Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.629034 18.187373 20.981432 24.252669 27.970409 32.056870 36.881181
2024-10-06 12.379571 16.076980 20.510283 26.183804 33.214268 41.600033 52.315404
2024-10-13 9.737597 13.919343 19.354355 26.853953 36.838474 49.566628 66.893810
2024-10-20 7.821299 12.174409 18.247165 27.189667 39.842486 56.893288 81.347539
2024-10-27 6.421412 10.796030 17.298001 27.437490 42.563226 63.940374 95.984388
2024-11-03 5.784098 10.390858 17.617731 29.444440 47.879511 74.972479 117.070027
2024-11-10 5.120165 9.794552 17.509303 30.712999 52.142487 84.776788 137.155545
2024-11-17 4.540509 9.217552 17.313187 31.757250 56.085947 94.355371 157.605113
2024-11-24 3.849911 8.303589 16.392812 31.438753 57.730179 100.424520 173.033537
2024-12-01 3.169803 7.272031 15.094429 30.262539 57.750473 103.805551 184.344789
2024-12-08 2.643402 6.438675 14.022616 29.323094 58.020186 107.528992 196.381777
2024-12-15 2.327977 5.984972 13.605106 29.528312 60.308665 114.784325 214.773202
2024-12-22 2.012713 5.483410 13.045368 29.444242 62.162300 121.624997 233.333894
2024-12-29 1.880020 5.383836 13.314303 31.060774 67.419941 134.979594 264.371242
2025-01-05 1.676832 5.068530 13.066108 31.572058 70.567907 144.734921 289.678773
2025-01-12 1.485141 4.739603 12.733441 31.853393 73.269934 153.851801 314.449520
2025-01-19 1.317003 4.434856 12.406201 32.096589 75.900609 163.008179 339.894139
2025-01-26 1.278974 4.489561 12.954724 34.385396 83.034189 181.382145 383.924458
2025-02-02 1.198805 4.402545 13.135259 35.834158 88.484799 196.800380 423.217493
2025-02-09 1.113649 4.280918 13.207442 37.028863 93.477636 211.629328 462.252362
2025-02-16 0.973725 3.949572 12.670082 36.662541 94.934555 219.339949 487.679099
2025-02-23 0.817665 3.520743 11.790004 35.313025 93.994622 221.981691 503.058453
2025-03-02 0.693412 3.166461 11.055981 34.234794 93.562785 225.627838 520.663025